A looming war with Iran could redefine the U.S.-Israeli alliance, testing its limits like never before. For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, this partnership has been the bedrock of his foreign policy, alongside a relentless campaign against Iran’s rulers. But here’s where it gets complicated: by drawing the U.S. into what he sees as an existential fight against Iran, Netanyahu is taking a gamble that could strain this alliance in unprecedented ways. And this is the part most people miss: while the immediate goal is to topple Iran’s leadership, the long-term consequences—both politically and economically—could be far more profound than anyone anticipates.
Netanyahu’s success in persuading U.S. President Donald Trump to join this conflict is a testament to their strong ties. If they succeed, they could swiftly achieve their shared objective of regime change in Iran, potentially sparing the region a prolonged conflict. But what if the war drags on? That’s when the real test begins. Prolonged fighting could erode public support in the U.S., with many Americans viewing Israel as the driving force behind a war that isn’t theirs to fight. As Ofer Shelah, a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, warns, this could be ‘very harmful for Israel in the medium and long term.’ Yet, in a telling nod to Netanyahu’s political calculus, Shelah adds, ‘Netanyahu is not interested in the medium and long term.’
But here’s where it gets controversial: while Netanyahu frames this as a necessary battle against an existential threat, critics argue that it risks alienating the very ally Israel relies on most. Over the past two years, support for Israel among the American public has waned, particularly among Democrats. Even some Republicans and Trump supporters have grown critical of the U.S.’s unwavering diplomatic and financial backing of Israel, especially amid the devastating war in Gaza. With this new conflict—the second in less than a year—Netanyahu is doubling down on his decades-long crusade against Iran, citing its support for anti-Israeli militias, ballistic missile arsenal, and nuclear ambitions.
Netanyahu himself declared that U.S. involvement ‘allows us to do what I have been hoping to do for 40 years—to deliver a crushing blow to the terror regime.’ But the war’s early days have already sent shockwaves across the globe. At least six U.S. troops have been killed, travel has been disrupted, and oil prices have surged, threatening to raise costs for American consumers. And this is the part most people miss: the conflict’s direction remains uncertain. Will airstrikes be enough to topple Iran’s leadership? Who or what will replace them? And what role will the U.S. and Israel play in shaping Iran’s future? These questions loom large, with each day bringing new risks.
As Nadav Eyal, a commentator for the Israeli newspaper Yediot Ahronoth, warns, ‘Israel cannot afford to lose the American public’s support under any circumstances. That is more important than striking any individual military facility.’ Yet, Aaron David Miller, a former adviser on Middle East issues, argues that Netanyahu has little to lose. With elections approaching, the war could distract from the failures of the October 7 attacks—the deadliest in Israel’s history—and position Netanyahu as a bold wartime leader who kept his lifelong promise to confront Iran. But here’s the counterpoint: what if the war backfires? If Trump senses the tide turning, he could de-escalate, leaving Netanyahu to follow suit. ‘If Trump feels as if it’s going south, he’ll find a way to de-escalate,’ Miller notes.
So, what do you think? Is Netanyahu’s gamble worth the risk, or is he jeopardizing Israel’s most vital alliance? Could this war achieve its goals, or will it deepen divisions both at home and abroad? Share your thoughts in the comments—this is a debate that demands your voice.
